The Oscar nominations were announced and although many people see Kathryn Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” going up against ex-hubby James Cameron’s “Avatar” as the main story, they’re not seeing the forest but for the trees. If anything, the big story this year is the expansion of the Best Picture category from five nominees to ten for the first time since 1943. With the Best Picture category having been dominated by independent and small-release pictures in recent years, the Academy figured that by increasing the number of nominees, more mainstream features would get recognized. (Hey, how about making better mainstream movies?) Below is my analysis of each of the major categories, as well as who will win/should win. Am I right about any of these? Join us here in the Lounge on March 7th for our live Oscar night party!
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges’ portrayal of a fallen country music superstar in “Crazy Heart” has been getting raves from audiences and critics alike. It was good enough to nab him Screen Actors Guild and a Golden Globe for Best Actor, so he’s the early front-runner. George Clooney was positively brilliant in Up in the Air as a “career transition counselor” who is addicted to air travel, but he won a Best Supporting Oscar for “Syriana” in 2008 (making him the only former Facts of Life cast member to do so, although I think Mindy Cohn’s time is coming) and Oscar likes to spread the wealth around. Perennial favorite Morgan Freeman took on the role of Nelson Mandela in Invictus and the Academy likes revered actors who take on historical roles. Rounding out the category are Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker and Colin Firth in A Single Man. My beef: why the hell wasn’t Brad Pitt nominated for his role as Lt. Aldo Raine in Inglourious Basterds???
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges.
Who Should Win: George Clooney.
BEST ACTRESS: I have no desire to see The Blind Side. I’m sure it’s a feel-good movie, but from the marketing campaign, it looks like they took every cliché they could stuff into a two-hour movie and poured syrup on top of the film canister. Unfortunately, the Academy eats up that crap, so it’s no surprise that Sandra Bullock was nominated here. Next you have two Academy darlings, Meryl Streep, for her channeling of culinary icon Julia Child in Julie & Julia (it is a testament to Streep that she was able to take a much-parodied personality like Child and play her a human being rather than a caricature) and Helen Mirren, who played Russian author Leo Tolstoy’s wife in The Last Station. Then you have two dark horses: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire and Carey Mulligan (one-time Doctor Who guest star) for An Education. Both delivered exceptionally strong performances and Oscar’s fickle finger sometimes likes to land on the dark horses. (Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny, anyone?)
Will Win: Sandra Bullock.
Should Win: Carey Mulligan.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: There are actually two sub-categories in this one: Christoph Walz and everyone not Christoph Walz. Walz’s portrayal of the charming-yet-sadistic Nazi colonel Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds could quite possibly be the single greatest performance in the last decade. Just when find yourself liking the guy, he goes and does something like strangling a woman or hunting down Jews. Mel Brooks aside, it takes an actor with depth and breadth to make the greatest evil mankind has faced in the last 100 years so charismatic and almost likeable. Matt Damon, Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer and Stanley Tucci are great actors all, but unless Christoph Walz is revealed to either a.) be a real Nazi or b.) having a love child with John Edwards, then there is no way in hell Walz is going unrecognized.
Will Win: Walz.
Should Win: Bumblebee for Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen. The Academy is biased against robots.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: It speaks volumes about Penelope Cruz that she managed to be the sole nominee from the otherwise forgettable Nine. To be able to stand out above the likes of Sophia Loren, Judi Dench and Nicole Kidman et al is a feat in and of itself. But it’s doubtful that she’ll take home the gold naked man this year. Indie darling Maggie Gyllenhaal finally nets her first nomination for Crazy Heart but will probably also go home empty-handed. Up in the Air sends its two main actresses – Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga – to the dance and rightfully so. Both gave luminescent performances as two radically different women in the life of George Clooney: Kendrick as a girl whose life is perfectly organized and longs for the stability of a husband and family and Farmiga as, in her words, “the girl you don’t have to worry about,” who is as spontaneous as she is beautiful. But the frontrunner here is Mo’Nique, who already has a number of statues – including a Golden Globe – for her role in Precious. While I still find it surreal that a woman who was once considered a staple of the now-defunct UPN network is a serious Oscar contender, it is still well-deserved.
Will Win: Mo’Nique.
Should Win: Anna Kendrick.
BEST DIRECTOR: A storyline that’s made for Hollywood: James Cameron takes his second nomination (he won in 1998 for the much-overrated Titanic) for the groundbreaking Avatar, pitting him against ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. While there seems to be debate as to whether or not Cameron will triumph or Bigelow will get the ultimate alimony settlement, do not count out any of the other directors. Jason Reitman, who directed Up in the Air, picks up his second nomination in as many years (already tying Cameron’s total) and is rapidly becoming Hollywood’s new “it” director. Inglourious Basterds was not only Quentin Tarantino’s masterpiece, but it was one of the best movies of the 21st century’s first decade. Unfortunately, like his Pulp Fiction, he finds himself up against a cultural juggernaut in Avatar. (In 1995, Fiction constantly got beat like a drum by Forest Gump). If Cameron were not nominated, I think there would be no doubt that this would be Tarantino’s year.
Will Win: James Cameron.
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino.
BEST PICTURE: Like Best Supporting Actor, this one is split into two subcategories: the “real” nominees and the nominees who are only there as a result of the category expansion, much like the awards show equivalent of Brown v. Board of Education. Up, the Disney Pixar feature that is also nominated for Best Animated Feature, is certainly one of those. Beautifully made, wonderfully moving performances, but Best Picture material? The sci-fi sleeper hit District 9 may be giving fanboys and fangirls geek palpitations across the country – including yours truly – but it would not be here were it not for the expansion. Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds certainly deserve to be here, but, like the Best Director horse race, this is a fight between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. If Avatar does win, it will be a major win for genre fans everywhere, as the Academy tends to not reward sci-fi/fantasy flicks. (See Star Wars and Raiders of the Lost Ark.)
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar. —Ron Motta